Analysis: Confident Riverhounds can overcome another scarce early season goal output

Photo courtesy Ed Thompson

Even while the Riverhounds endure a run of goal-scoring futility through the first half of the season — for the second consecutive year — there isn’t a lot of panic within the club.

The drought continued last weekend when the Hounds returned home after four game road swing, losing 1-0, in its USL Jägermeister Cup group stage match against Rhode Island FC, a team they beat one week earlier on the road in league play by the same score.

With the loss, the Hounds were all but eliminated from having a chance to advance to the knockout rounds in their first go-around in the tournament.

Despite the most recent setback and continuing absence of goals — even as some of the most loyal supporters and fans express their displeasure on various fan-based message boards and platforms — Hounds players, along with the team’s Head Coach, Bob Lilley, remain a confident, determined group that believes that good things are in store for the season as they turn the page to June.

Indeed, it’s a long season, with six more months and 22 more matches to go.

Lilley and the players can now focus almost exclusively on league play, where they currently sit above the playoff line, in the USL Championship’s Eastern Conference, in 7th place with 11 points.

“We’re starting to have an identity. Today, we didn’t get a result.” Robbie Mertz, Riverhounds veteran midfielder pointed out after Saturday’s loss.

Mertz cited the team’s season high number of attacking chances created that resulted in 15 shots, with four on frame.

“I think we put a lot of balls in dangerous places.”

While making a solid case for feeling better about things, it also turned out to be ironic that he cited the team starting to build a clearer identity as a unit, because that was a question that was addressed in last week’s Riverhounds Notebook, with Lilley and midfielder Jackson Walti.

“We’re finding our groove a little bit,” Walti remarked.

“The start of the season hasn’t been great, but I feel better about the way we’re playing than the start of the season last year. We don’t necessarily have as many points as we had last year, but we’re more confident in what we can accomplish in the back end of the season.”

Mertz also took the latest game in the context of the scope of the entire season.

“I knew May was going to be a really difficult run of fixtures.” Mertz was referring a run of matches that included a loss to North Carolina FC at home, two Open Cup games against MLS teams and three road games against Louisville City, Colorado Springs and Rhode Island.

In May, the Hounds picked up two wins and a draw — including a win against an MLS side and earning four out of a possible 12 points toward in league fixtures.

“It was going to be a difficult test of character. We came out well.”

After Saturday’s loss, Lilley cut to the chase on how things are going when they attempt to get forward.

“The runs aren’t good enough. One man can’t beat two or three,” Lilley said.

“When players have their heads turned, you have to get in a good position to score. Guys need to get into the box. There are moments there, but we need better. We played four or five games with good effort. I was happy with how we played in Rhode Island last week. We played better in the second half tonight. We played with more urgency.”

While Riverhounds faithful may want to forget — when they entered June last year, they were also near the bottom in scoring goals but were already sitting below the playoff line.  Then, things went from bad to worse, extending a winless streak through the entire month.

Lilley and this core group of veteran players have proven time-after-time, that they can finish strong.

Last year, they finished the season losing only once in their final 15 matches.

Heading into this season, much talk from players and coaches was a strong desire to get out to strong start.

That clearly did not come to fruition.

Still, there’s enough evidence that this team is more than capable of turning things around.

Another difference where the Hounds are this season at this time vs last year, is where they are in the standings.  Even as they work through scoring issues, they remain above the playoff line (with 11 points, good for 7th place — tied with Indy Eleven and one point above Birmingham and Miami).  A year ago, at this time, they were below the playoff line.

However, with a few more poor results, the Hounds could easily dip into the danger zone.

Attacking Woes Come to Forefront Early in Season, Again

Hounds’ fan base is growing impatient with the team’s inability to score goals — and tired of a same old story early in the season.

PSN’s Mark Goodman may have said it best when describing the Hounds a year ago.  The Soccer Rabbi wrote of the Hounds’ attack in late May 2024: ‘they moved deftly through midfield and up the wings and into the final third’.

‘Then it goes flump.’

There are some folks who are blaming lack of production on forward position, namely Augustine Williams, the club’s big offseason signing, who came to Pittsburgh as one of the USL Championship’s all-time goal scoring leaders.

Since scoring in the Hounds opener, Williams has not been able score since.

Some of the problems may be attributed to how much service and opportunities that have been created for Williams.

The Sierra Leone striker came close two weeks ago at Rhode Island, getting robbed on a late breakaway, then last week, he generated a few more chances.  Overall, Williams has been logging big minutes as Lilley continues to go to him as his primary target man who is also working back a lot to the middle of the field in his hold-up play.  In total, Williams has attempted 12 shots all season, with five of those on target.

Williams’ goals per 90 minutes number (0.11) is on track to be the worst, and well below his career average (0.42).

And yes — there are some who believe that Lilley, who has the most wins of any active coach on U.S. pro soccer landscape, is holding this team back.

Don’t count me in as one of those.

Bottom line, it really comes down to the players executing in the final third.

Right now, they’re not getting the job done.

In a similar column last year around this time, we outlined the Hounds’ futility — pointing out that the numbers don’t lie.

The chart below shows where the Hounds were last year at this time and where they are this year.

Keep in mind that the Hounds have played two less league matches this season, which makes sense, since the two Jägermeister Cup matches were added to the schedule at the end of April and May.

In some respects, it’s eerie how similar the numbers align from 2024 to 2025, from the team’s record, goal differential and in some of the key attacking categories including goals and goals per match and conversion rate.

	5-Jun-24	5-Jun-25
League Record	3W-5L-4D	3W-5L-2D
Goal Differential	(- 3)	(- 3)
Goals	11 (last in USLC)	7 (last in USLC)
Conversion Rate	10% (last)	13% (tied 18th)
Shots	148 (11th)	79 (23rd)
Goals per match	0.9 (last)	0.7 (23rd)
Shots on target per match	4.1 (13th)	2.6 (23rd)
Big Chances	32 (4th)	6 (last)
Big Chances Missed	23 (3rd)	3 (last)
Touches in Opposition’s Box	318 (2nd)	154 (22nd)
Possession	42% (23rd)	50.1% (13th)

Digging deeper though, the biggest differences between the early season numbers in 2024 and 2025 point toward the team’s shift in approach and style of play.

Lilley made no secret at the outset of this season for his intent to become a better possession side.  Looking at the numbers, that is the case, with the Hounds’ seeing a significant jump from having the ball 42 percent of the time (in 2024) to over 50 percent this season.

Sure, there have been clear signs of more extended and meaningful possession, from the early season form when they peaked at nearly 60 percent after three matches to last Saturday’s 60/40 edge at home vs Rhode Island.

However, despite less possession, last year’s team generated more chances than this current group.  There’s been a significant drop in total shots (from 148 after 12 matches in 2024 to 79 after 10 matches in 2025), shots on target (4.1 to 2.6), Big Chances (32 — good for 4th in 2024, to 6 — dead last in USLC) and Big Chances Missed (23 in 2024 to 3 in 2025), and lastly, touches in opposition box, the Hounds were second in the league last year, with 318 total touches in the box, but this year, they’re near the bottom, with 154, sitting at 22nd.  Also, by this time last year, Pittsburgh had earned three penalties in the box — converting on two of them.

According to FootyStats, the Hounds are in the lower, middle of the pack in the league in expected goals (1.28) per match, but in generating just 0.7 goals actual per match, they have the USL Championship’s largest negative gap in between the two (-0.58).

So, much like a season ago, it comes down to execution in the final third.

The club’s more determined mindset to possess the ball through the back and middle of the field, has in turn resulted some bite coming out of the Hounds’ high press, which, when things are going well, typically has been an effective way they’ve generated more touches in the opposition’s box.

Still, Lilley felt a change needed to come, emphasizing that at the start of the season, he was orchestrating a ‘big cleaning project’ to develop a clearer identity.

To be fair, the troubling attacking stats are swayed slightly by the mere fact that the Hounds have played a tough schedule, with only three of their first 10 league matches on the road while steering toward a bit of a different approach to the way they play.

Only once in league play have the Hounds created double-digit shot attempts in a match — and that was on May 24, in its 1-0 win at Rhode Island.

In what has to be a positive sign, despite not scoring in the return tilt vs Rhode Island, a very well-disciplined side that has much of its core back from making the USL Cup Final a year ago, the Hounds were on the front foot for most of Saturday’s match, hitting the woodwork a few times in the process.

Despite various personnel changes, one constant has been Mertz from last year to this year in the attacking line.  Otherwise, the added presence of Danny Griffin as an attacking mid has resulted in the team’s captain being the surprise early in the season as the squad’s leader in goals scored, with three of the team’s seven goals.

Griffin has more shots than any of the forwards (14) and same number on target (5) as Williams, while also creating seven chances.

When balls are getting to him, Mertz has been the team’s prime mover on the edges of the final third, working underneath the forwards and in spaces on the width, leading the squad with 16 chances created.

While some of the metrics are good for both Luke Biasi and Junior Etou along with Perrin Barnes, the two-way outside backs/wingers haven’t been too instrumental in pushing the play forward consistently, as they’ve each created four chances, but have been inconsistent in landing successful crosses or causing too much havoc when getting forward.  Etou did suffer an injury which kept him out for a bit. Still a quality presence out there, Etou’s not been the same player he was last season, when he was wreaking havoc on the width.

After missing all of March and April, Bertin Jacquesson has slowly started to get back into the main rotation, starting the last four matches.  Still, the former Pitt standout has not lived up to his previous stint, when he scored five goals and added two assists on loan from Real Salt Lake late last season. Still, Jacquesson brings quality on the ball, in his passing and finishing, that will drive defenders his way, hopefully opening things up for everyone else getting forward.

With Jacquesson on the right wing, Mertz roaming on the left side, while Williams is the central, target forward, the Hounds shifted things up a bit at Rhode Island, having Griffin a little deeper. As a result, they had their best stretch of play getting forward and staying on the front foot all season.

Lilley appears to be moving remaining midfield depth in and out of the rotation and gameday selections as the squad has become healthier in the past few weeks.

Bradley Sample and Aiden O’Toole have been getting some starts. Midfielders Charles Ahl, Jorge Garcia and Jason Borgey have shown glimpses and flashes in moments, but each in year one under Bob Lilley are finding playing in this system can be a steep learning curve.

The team remains most stable along the backline.  Sean Suber, Illal Osumanu, Beto Ydrach along with the emergence of Guilherme Vactor and Max Broughton, have provided a solid core of center backs in front of veteran goalkeeper Eric Dick. The Hounds are at or near the top of the league in all key defensive categories and they continue to make life difficult for teams to score.

While no match in the current edition of the USL Championship is ever going to be easy, the Hounds should have a better opportunity to start bagging points in the coming weeks, as they’ll be home in five of the next six matches.

This will be a critical stretch to build upon the identity they feel they’re starting to have, become an even more confident team but most importantly, start scoring more goals.