Preview: Riverhounds have ‘clear goal’ in regular season finale vs highly motivated Phoenix Rising

For the Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC in a season that has seen quite a few ebbs and flows, comes down to the regular season finale on Saturday night with an opportunity to lock up a top four finish in the Eastern Conference standings and host a home playoff match for only the second time this decade.

With a win vs Phoenix (7 p.m. kickoff), the Hounds will secure at least fourth place, and with some help (Hartford would have to lose or draw at Louisville) they could finish as high as third place.  (Also, 5th place North Carolina FC and 6th place Loudoun United FC will face each other at 5 p.m. — so the Hounds will know the result before they kick off).

Anything outside of a win, the scenarios get a little bit more complicated. For more on all of the possible scenarios, click here.

Bottom line is the Hounds control its own destiny. This is largely so thanks to wins in the past two and in four of the past five weeks, with Rob Vincent serving as the team’s acting Head Coach for the last two, while the team’s longtime Head Coach, Bob Lilley remains on administrative leave.

“I think it removes some of the narrative and some of those auxiliary thoughts you can have in the final week,” Vincent said following the Hounds’ 3-0 win at Monterey Bay FC last Saturday.

Vincent and the coaching staff should have a full allotment of roster selections for the 18 and the starting lineup, with only Aidan O’Toole, who’s been out for the season with a knee injury, unavailable.

The cross-conference foes will face off for the fifth-ever time in the regular season, with Rising looking for its first win in the series since September 2014, when Vincent was a player.

On that day, the Hounds, who made a valiant, late season postseason push after a disastrous start to the second season of the Highmark Stadium era, fell short, losing to Phoenix.

This Hounds team, now led by Vincent, knows its assignment.

“It’s a clear goal: Win and we get the home playoff game. It’s always messy on the last day when you’re looking at other results. But even without the other results going our way tonight, we knew we had to maximize our points by getting wins in these last two matches.”

A Closer Look: Phoenix Rising FC

In the crowded Western Conference, Phoenix hasn’t even clinched its playoff spot.

It would take an unlikely series of events to eliminate them — a Rising loss coupled with wins by all four of Colorado Springs (at Tulsa), San Antonio (vs. El Paso), Orange County (vs. Indy) and Lexington (at Oakland) — but Phoenix will be coming to Pittsburgh hoping at least to get the draw that assures their qualification.

Phoenix is coming off a pair of wins, including last week’s 2-0 result vs playoff-bound San Antonio.

“We’re not done yet, but obviously, from where we started to where we are now, again, it’s process that we built with the boys,” Rising Head Coach Pa-Modou Kah said this week.

The Hounds will have to aware where Phoenix forward Charlie Dennis is at all times.

In the club’s final push to the postseason, the Englishman has scored four goals across the club’s last four matches and five goal contributions (4G, 1A) dating back to September 20.

Additionally, Dennis has picked up two league-wide recognitions in the past month. On September 30, the midfielder was named Player of the Week after he netted a brace to spur Rising’s three-goal comeback against Oakland Roots SC on September 27.

Hope Avayevu is among the league leaders in goal contributions this year with six goals and 10 assists for Phoenix, while Ihsan Sacko and in-form Dennis share the team lead with seven goals apiece.

Rising will officially finish the 30-match regular season without dropping back-to-back matches. the team never lost two consecutive games.

“What you need in that process is adversity, resilience and character. (The players) have shown it from day one, and they keep showing it constantly. The technical staff, the players, the whole club, we hold ourselves to a high standard and hold each other accountable and challenge each other. That will help us grow in the process. That’s why we are where we are now.”.

What to Expect

This is a match that features one of the league’s top scoring teams — Phoenix — who are tied for third in goals and tops in conversion rate (22%) and also have a good nucleus of players who are comfortable on the ball and they’re willing to play it out of the back.

The Hounds are among the league’s best defensive outfits and always look — especially at home — to tilt the field downhill in its favor by pressing and bring numbers forward quickly.  Defenders Sean Suber and Guillaume Vacter have contributed to scoring moments, with Suber scoring in the past two matches.  In the past five matches, Pittsburgh has been averaging nearly 30 crosses a match and double-digit shots — and have become less wasteful when getting forward, though still sit in the bottom half of the league in conversion rate (15%).

Put these two sides together and it could go either way but the home side are going to push to dictate tempo and put their clamps the Rising attack, while being more patient and deliberate on the ball but seek out moments to get runners into the box.  Phoenix will prefer things to be more open-ended and back-and-forth throughout.

Hounds’ matches have been the lowest-scoring in the league with only 60 total goals (32 for, 28 against), while Phoenix tends to give both nets a workout with 96 total goals — 48 for is tied for third-best in the Championship, but their 48 allowed is tied for the fifth worst.

In the past two matches, Pittsburgh has been able to — for the first time this season — build on the match after scoring the first goal.  The Hounds have been starting well in most matches during the last half of the season, but only recently have they been finishing stronger.

John K’s Projected Riverhounds’ Starting XI

Match Details:

Riverhounds (12-10-7) vs. Phoenix Rising FC (9-8-12)
Date: Saturday, Oct. 25
Time: 7 p.m.
Location: Highmark Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pa.
Tickets: Ticketmaster
Odds: Hounds -125 / Draw +230 / Phoenix +300 at Fan Duel
TV: KDKA+
Streaming: ESPN+
Radio: Radio Las Palmas, 92.9 FM HD2
Live statistics: USL Championship Match Center

Look for our coverage to come on Saturday from Highmark Stadium!