Preview and Scouting Report: Riverhounds look to extend impressive unbeaten streak vs reeling Rowdies

Photo courtesy Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC

The Pittsburgh Riverhounds SC face another important challenge in their quest to remain in the hunt to earn their seventh straight playoff berth, as they travel to Florida to take on the Tampa Bay Rowdies on Saturday night (7:30 p.m. – KDKA+ / ESPN+).

The Rowdies and Riverhounds have locked up in many important battles over the past decade, but this match is right up there along with last year’s showdown in terms of importance, especially for the Hounds.  Tampa Bay (at 43 points), despite a terrible run of form of late, are holding onto third place position comfortably, but have almost no shot at catching the top two teams (Louisville City and Charleston).

The Riverhounds (35 points — good for 8th place at the moment), on the other hand, are in an absolute dogfight reach the finish line in 8th place or better, as they’re running out of time with just six matches remaining.

The good news for Pittsburgh soccer fans, the Hounds are in very good form, with lots of momentum coming into this match on a 10-game unbeaten run (5-0-5) that put them back into playoff contention. With a result in St. Petersburg, the Hounds have a chance to equal the longest undefeated streak in the USL Championship this season.

The Rowdies have been moving in the opposite direction, dropping four of their past five and winning just once in the past seven matches after a 2-0 loss Wednesday night at Birmingham.

A more well-rested Hounds squad will be at full strength for the match and can roll out the full roster with an off weekend next week.

Pat Hogan is available after serving a one-match suspension against Rhode Island, and Junior Etou returned to training Thursday after making his international debut for the Republic of Congo in African Cup of Nations qualifying. That gives coach Bob Lilley plenty of decisions to make with two additional bodies in the defensive group that shut out Rhode Island last week, as well as up front, where Bertin Jacquesson seems poised for a second start after finding the net on his team debut.

Pittsburgh is undefeated in its last three meetings with Tampa Bay, sweeping the series last year before a scoreless draw at Highmark Stadium earlier this season. Remarkably, they’ve also not conceded a goal to the Rowdies over that span. The last time the Hounds were on the Al Lang Stadium pitch, they defeated the Rowdies in the second-to-last match of the regular season, locking down the club’s first-ever Players Shield for the league’s highest point total during the regular season.  The Hounds and Rowdies faced off once already this season, at Highmark Stadium, with neither side able to solve the other, in a nil-nil draw. 

Meanwhile, on Saturday, four of the teams the 8th Place Hounds are contending with (Detroit City FC, Indy Eleven, Loudoun FC vs Birmingham) will each kickoff one half hour prior (at 7 p.m.), so when the match ends at Al Lang Stadium, there will be a clearer picture for the Hounds’ place in the standings when the final whistle blows.

With the Hounds having played one more match than most of the teams they’re battling, and with being off next week, they’re looking at this match in St. Petersburg with an added sense of urgency.

Tampa Bay Rowdies: A Closer Look

At first glance, the Rowdies roster and player selections are a little different than the first time the two teams met earlier this season, which we provided an in-depth scouting report at the time (in early April).

Preview: Lineup tweaks may be in order for winless Riverhounds in showdown with Rowdies

Led by a new coach, Robbie Neilson, the Rowdies have a nice mix of experienced USL players (veterans Leo Fernandes, Lewis Hilton are the obvious mainstays in addition to Cal Jennings), but also have lots of young, budding talents.

This team has a double dose of scoring talent at the top of the attack, with Manuel Arteaga (14 goals) and Jennings (13 goals) accounting for more than half of the team’s 45 goals this season, while veteran midfielder Lewis Hilton is fifth in the Championship with 49 chances created, while other playmakers can’t be ignored either, especially midfielder Josh Pérez (4 assists) and defender Blake Bodily (5 assists).

By USL Championship standards, they’re deep at most positions, but that depth has been tested over the past month as they’ve been dealing with numerous injuries and absences — and overall poor stretches of play. Without veteran Forest Lasso (out for season with torn ACL), Tampa’s defending has struggled to the tune of giving up 11 goals in the past five matches (and that includes a 2-0 shutout win vs last place Miami during this stretch). This is a stunning turn of fortunes, as Tampa’s was one of the best defensive units in the league through the first half of the season.  On the Rowdies injury report ahead of this match, Nick Moon is out and Endri Mustali is questionable.  Meanwhile Cristian Ortiz (International Duty) should be back and available.

The Rowdies have a strong veteran presence in goal, with Jordan Farr right behind Hounds’ Eric Dick’s 11 shutouts, with 10 clean sheets of his own on the season.

Regardless, the Rowdies should be still be a handful for the Hounds again, as they’ve played a bit more direct than they have in recent seasons.  Neilson, the former Scottish League standout, who also had a stint with Leicester City, and was highly successful as a manager, is relatively new to the U.S. and the USL, but appears to be quickly putting his stamp with this Rowdies, molding them into a high energy group that will play with an endless work rate.

The Rowdies come into this match looking to hit the reset button, following Wednesday night when nothing seemed to go right, losing 2-0 to Birmingham.  Neilson was suspended for one match due to a red card in the previous 4-2 loss to Colorado Springs, but will be back for this match vs Pittsburgh.

And, nothing has gone well for Tampa Bay when playing against most of the teams battling around the playoff line — as three of their four losses in the past five games have come against aforementioned Legion FC, Loudoun United FC and Detroit City FC.

“We were obviously disappointed with the last two results,” Neilson said in the team’s match preview.

“I think there have been a number of positives. We are getting a lot of attacking opportunities. I think a lot of times, these games swing on the first goal. We had several opportunities to get that first goal in Birmingham but then they scored on one of their first shots on target right before the half. It changed the flow of the game. When we have these points of adversity, it’s important that we continue doing what we’ve done all season… We are creating opportunities. We’re just in a period where we’re not taking these chances.”

Here’s how they lined up last week and on Tuesday night, as its apparent that the Rowdies will likely have to go deep to their roster in this match.

TBR vs Birmingham (9/10/2024) 

TBR vs Colorado Springs (9/10/2024) 

Match-Ups to Watch; Hounds Projected Starting Lineup

In the first match at Highmark Stadium earlier this season, Pittsburgh outshot Tampa Bay, 16-6, but needed to be more clinical in the Tampa Bay box.

That’s an area where the Hounds have been better of late — with Bertin Jacquesson fabulous finish late in the first half along with Bradley Sample’s redirected looping header — added two more goals to Pittsburgh drastically improved goal conversion rate.   In fact, when these teams met in early April, Pittsburgh was dead last in the league in goals and conversion rate. But now the teams are one equal terms in conversion rate (13% each), despite Tampa scoring league’s third best number of goals (45), while Pittsburgh as inched upwards into the middle of the pack (29).

If trends continue, conventional wisdom is that Pittsburgh should be able to continue to create chances in this critical road match as they’re facing a team that’s allowed too many goals of late. The Hounds have seen a wide range within their squad provide the goals they’ve needed to maintain their playoff push. Seven different players have been responsible for the eight goals the side has scored in the last four games.

The Hounds have lots of options with the return of Etou and Hogan, it’s likely that one or both could return to the lineup. Etou for sure, and depending on match-ups, Hogan could also get the assignment with the center back grouping.

Tampa still has dangerous threats all around, even as they’ve struggled of late, so if this match is tight late, Pittsburgh can’t afford to give them any chances or clean looks.  Two weeks ago, the Hounds appeared to be in control and ready to take a full three points on the road, but surrendered a stoppage time goal to Indy, off the dangerous foot of Romario Williams.

In the first match between these two teams, Eric Dick was called to save a point for the Hounds when the Rowdies drew a free kick 20 yards from goal. A stellar effort from Lewis Hilton was on-frame, top-right corner, and Dick fully laid out and was able to parry away a sure goal. That proved to be the final opportunity of the night for either side as the final whistle blew with zeroes on the scoreboard.

The Hounds’ defensive solidity has been the other key to its current run. Over its 10-game streak, the side has an Expected Goals Against mark of 7.24xGA, the lowest in the league over that span, has conceded only five times, and has posted six shutouts.

Lilley spoke after last Saturday’s win, that this team is starting to grasp what he wants out of them but most of all, no matter who he puts in the lineup, wants to see his club continue to consistently dictate the terms of every match, just as they’ve done over the last 10 games, and the results will take care of themselves.

John K’s Hounds Projected Starting XI 

• GK – Eric Dick
• Winger/OB (L) – Junior Etou
• CB – Luke Biasi
• CB – Sean Suber
• CB – Illal Osumanu
• Winger/OB (R) – Langston Blackstock
• CMF –  Jackson Walti
• CMF – Danny Griffin
• AMF – Robbie Mertz
• F – Edward Kizza
• F – Bertin Jacquesson

Bench options:

• GK – Gabe Perrotta, Jacob Randolph
• D – Pat Hogan, Jake Kent-Loop, Pierre Cayet, Dani Rovira
• MF – Kenardo Forbes, Aiden O’Toole, Bradley Sample, Nate Dragasich
• F – Babacar Diene, Kazaiah Sterling, Emmanuel Johnson